Archived: the classic site (v1), frozen 29 Oct 2026. Kept for reference only: its data stopped updating and some functions may not work. Go to the current site →
Things in our data that no public reporting explains yet, from the Reporter Leads box at the top of every report. Each is a question for reporting, not a finding. The 24-hour journalist hold is paused until 2 Nov 2026 02:30 UTC, so new leads appear here as soon as a report is issued; their status (confirmed, killed, story published) is updated as reporting settles them.
How these are made. SITREPs are LLM-generated and automated: produced by an AI model from the pipeline's open-source data and published. They are leads, not findings. Analyses are different: written by a human and signed by their author.
RWI-BRIEF-004-L1Brief
Where did the C-146A go when it flew back toward Libya from Pantelleria later on 14 Dec 2015?
Where / when Pantelleria (LICG) → Libya, afternoon/evening 14 Dec 2015
Why it is a lead The Aviationist reported the aircraft flew 'again towards Libya later on the same day from Pantelleria'. No destination has been reported. The Pentagon said personnel 'traveled to Libya' with Libyan concurrence — the second trip may be the one that was planned.
What would settle it AFRICOM/SOCAFRICA: second destination; Flightradar24: historical playback of 13097 / MAGMA30 for 14 Dec 2015.
Why it is a lead HoR member Ali Tekbali tweeted that 20 US soldiers were 'dropped with their vehicles'. Only one aircraft is on the record, a 21 m Dornier 328; Photo 3 shows gear loaded onto a light vehicle of unknown ownership.
What would settle it Libyan Air Force / Abu Bakr al-Siddiq Battalion: whose vehicle is in Photo 3; any second aircraft.
A SAR Kingfisher was airborne at Comox when the fire hit
Where / when CC-295 295505 'SNAK505', 442 Sqn, 19 Wing Comox: airborne 15:17–17:50 MDT 17 Oct, local, down to 200–500 ft
Why it is a lead Comox is 1,034 km from Wainwright, almost exactly Winnipeg's distance (998 km), and its Kingfisher has been on SAR alert since May 2025 with a proven ramp-jump capability. It was already flying, with a crew up, when the fire reached the troops at about 16:00. It landed at 17:50. The jump came from Winnipeg on a Hercules that took off at 19:49.
What would settle it DND/JRCC: was 442 Sqn or its airborne Kingfisher considered for Wainwright? Who decided on 435 Sqn, and when?
The nearest unit that could parachute medics was 1,000 km away — by design since 2018
Where / when4 Wing Cold Lake (417 Sqn) 177 km from Wainwright; 17 Wing Winnipeg (435 Sqn) 998 km
Why it is a lead 417 Sqn at Cold Lake (now a 'Domestic Response Squadron') flies Griffons crewed with a Medical Technician since SAR techs were replaced from 2018; med techs are not trained to parachute. Its Griffon could have landed at the hospital helipad in about 50 minutes. Whether it or 408 Sqn (Edmonton, 196 km) flew that night is not reported, and neither transmitted a position.
What would settle it DND: were 417 or 408 Sqn Griffons (or 1 Field Ambulance medics in Edmonton) requested or used on 17 Oct?
The drop zone sat under the air-ambulance traffic stream — and a helicopter is in the video of the jump
Where / when Wainwright Health Centre, 21:56–00:38 MDT 17–18 Oct
Why it is a lead Fixed-wing air ambulances arriving at and departing Wainwright passed within 0.3–2 km of the hospital at 2,600–4,300 ft above the ground at 21:58, 22:06, 23:50, 00:33 and 00:37 — minutes from both reported jump times (~22:00 and 'just before midnight'). An EC145 air-ambulance helicopter (C-FLCI) worked the area 17:27–00:36. Prime Rogue's review of a video of the jump, circulating on YouTube, shows a helicopter in the shot with the parachutists and obstacles throughout the landing area (video not yet archived by RWI).
What would settle it NAV CANADA: was a NOTAM issued for the drop, and when? STARS / air-ambulance operators: were crews told of the drop, was the helipad held? DND: who coordinated the airspace, and did the Hercules crew have contact with the helicopter?
Which Hercules dropped the SAR techs — 130339 or 130325?
Where / when Winnipeg → Wainwright → (Lloydminster?) → Winnipeg, 17 Oct 19:49 MDT – 18 Oct 05:01 MDT
Why it is a lead The open flight archive shows only one CC-130H transmitting on 17–18 Oct: 130339, leaving Winnipeg four minutes before the time BorderPulse reported. The only published photo is captioned 130325, which never appears in the archive. DND has named no aircraft.
What would settle it DND/RCAF: aircraft tail and callsign; BorderPulse: the original photo (tail on the fuselage).
When did the SAR techs jump — about 22:00 or just before midnight?
Where / when Wainwright, night of 17 Oct 2026
Why it is a lead BorderPulse has the aircraft over Wainwright at about 10 p.m. and on the ground at Lloydminster around midnight; the mayor says the medics dropped "just before midnight". A 22:00 drop puts them on the ground about six hours after the fire hit the troops — a response interval set by when the request was made, not by flight time.
What would settle it DND: tasking time, take-off, each pass and jump time; JRCC case log (ATIP).
Djibouti: a spot just north of the US drone runway at Chabelley burns again and again
Where / when 0.5–0.9 km north of the western end of the Chabelley Airfield runway; 4 May, 22 Jun, 6 Jul and 26 Oct 2026 (7 detections, 4–17 MW), always on daytime satellite passes, never at night
Why it is a lead Nothing else burns in this stretch of desert in six months of data; the same few hundred metres light up on four separate days. Chabelley hosts US remotely piloted aircraft. Open burning of waste at US sites in Djibouti is a live issue: Djibouti is a covered location for toxic-exposure (burn pit) presumptions under the PACT Act. The data cannot say what burns or who burns it.
What would settle it CJTF-HOA / Camp Lemonnier public affairs: is there a waste-burning, disposal or training-fire site at or beside Chabelley, and who runs it? The next clear Sentinel-2 pass (28 Oct 07:46 UTC) should show whether 26 Oct left a scar.
A Polish government jet landed at Rzeszów-Jasionka with no announced visit
Where / when Polish Air Force Gulfstream (0001, hex 48d960, callsign PLF105) descending to the ground at Rzeszów-Jasionka, 27 Oct 10:52–11:10 UTC (11:52–12:10 Polish time)
Why it is a lead Rzeszów is the usual gateway for leaders travelling on to Ukraine by train, and Polish government jets carry the president, prime minister and ministers. We found no announced visit to Rzeszów or Ukraine by a Polish official that day. Trips to Kyiv are often announced only on arrival.
What would settle it Chancellery of the Prime Minister / President's office / Ministry of National Defence: who flew to Rzeszów on PLF105 on 27 Oct, and did they travel on to Ukraine?
A daytime fire in the central Arava, seen by three satellites in under an hour on election day
Where / when 27 Oct 09:52, 10:28 and 10:47 UTC; 30.678N 35.254E, farmland in the central Arava, Israel; 7.7–8.4 MW on each pass (Plate A1)
Why it is a lead Three satellites measured it at the same strength over 55 minutes, so it burned steadily. We found no report of a fire, an incident or a strike there. The nearest clear image is from 23 Oct, before the fire, so we cannot see what burned.
What would settle it Israel Fire and Rescue Services (southern district) or the Central Arava regional council: was there a fire there on the morning of 27 Oct, and what burned? The next clear Sentinel-2 pass will show any burn scar.
CFB Wainwright: the RCAF search-and-rescue aircraft are missing from the open record
Where / when 17–18 Oct; within 80 km of the base
Why it is a lead Search and Rescue Technicians from 17 Wing Winnipeg reportedly parachuted in to help with casualties (Wikipedia, citing reporting). No RCAF Hercules, Kingfisher or other SAR aircraft appears in the open ADS-B archive near Wainwright on either day, while the civil air ambulances do.
What would settle it which aircraft dropped the SAR techs, when, and from where (National Defence / 17 Wing); whether it flew with its transponder off.
CFB Wainwright: Top Aces Alpha Jets back over the base within days of the fire
Where / when 20, 21, 22 and 26 Oct; Alpha Jets C-FTAX, C-GUTA, C-FTAE and C-GQTA at 5,300–9,000 ft within 12 km — C-FTAX directly overhead (0.1 km) on 21 Oct at 6,400 ft
Why it is a lead Alpha Jets on the Canadian civil register belong to Top Aces, the RCAF's contracted adversary-air company (normally flying out of Cold Lake). Repeated low passes over Wainwright from three days after the deaths suggest air-to-ground or joint training resumed there. Not reported.
What would settle it National Defence: what training was under way at Wainwright 20–26 Oct, and has live fire resumed?
Is the CC-295 Kingfisher now flying from 17 Wing Winnipeg?
Where / when CC-295 295513 parked on the 17 Wing ramp, Winnipeg airport, 26 Oct 23:56 – 27 Oct 00:15 UTC; airborne by 00:24 (Plate W1)
Why it is a lead Winnipeg is one of four scheduled CC-295 bases. National Defence gives operational status only for 19 Wing Comox (in service since 1 May 2025); it gives none for Winnipeg, Trenton or Greenwood. This is the first CC-295 we have logged at Winnipeg. Our live logs only start on 25 Oct, so we cannot tell a visit from a new routine.
What would settle it National Defence / RCAF: is 295513 assigned to 17 Wing, and has the Kingfisher started flying from Winnipeg? The adsb.lol daily archive can show how often 295513 has used Winnipeg this year — we can run that scan.
Al-Watiya: the only two aircraft to come down there this year (carried from SITREP 010, L1 — strengthened)
Where / when Turkish Air Force A400M 15-0051 on the ground 2 Sep 12:03–14:51 UTC; A400M 18-0093 probably landed 3 Sep (Plates T1–T2 in SITREP 010)
Why it is a lead the scan now covers 287 days with data, 1 Jan – 25 Oct. No other aircraft — military, state or civil — came down within 10 km of Al-Watiya in open ADS-B. The two flights fall in the busiest week of Turkish A400M traffic to western Libya this year (Part 2). Still unreported.
What would settle it Turkish or Libyan MoD comment on what was delivered on 2–3 Sep; trackers' logs for those days.
Night fires on the west Zawiya coast, 11 Aug – 11 Sep (carried from SITREP 010, L4) — still unexplained
Where / when 32.788–32.793N 12.624–12.643E, four nights. Before/after imagery (4 Aug, 13 Sep) shows a large pale open yard (red box) and a walled compound (orange box) on the coast road, unchanged (Plates F3–F4)
Why it is a lead no scorch, no new structures, no change at 10 m; the fires were brief and small. Nothing reported.
What would settle it what the yard and compound are; local reports for 11 and 22 Aug and 7 and 11 Sep.
Night fires south of Sabratha, 27 Aug (carried from SITREP 010, L3) — still unexplained
Where / when 32.623–32.627N 12.465–12.471E; before and after imagery (24 and 29 Aug) show a walled compound with a pale yard and a dark pool or tarp beside it; the dark patch is larger and darker on 29 Aug (Plates F1–F2)
Why it is a lead the only change in the frame is at the compound itself. Too small to call a burn scar at 10 m.
What would settle it what the compound is; local reports for the early hours of 27 Aug.
A Turkish Air Force A400M landed at Al-Watiya on 2 September 2026; a second probably landed on 3 September
Where / when 2 Sep: A400M 15-0051 descended in a spiral over the base from 10,725 ft (11:57), reported on the ground at 12:03 and again at 14:48 on the west end, airborne 14:51 and gone north-east by 15:49 — about 2 h 48 min on the ground. 3 Sep: A400M 18-0093 spiralled down to 675 ft 5 km east of the runway at 12:09, was not heard for 2 h 18 min, then was climbing over the base at 14:27. Both came from and left towards the Ionian Sea (Plates T1–T2).
Why it is a lead Turkish A400M flights to Watiya were reported in 2020–2022, but we found no report of any flight or event at the base in 2025–26, and no report of these two. They are the only aircraft in 90 days of open ADS-B to come down at Al-Watiya. They fall in the busiest week of Turkish airlift to western Libya in the window (lead L2). We cannot tell what was carried.
What would settle it Turkish MoD or Libyan MoD comment on deliveries to Watiya on 2–3 Sep; ItaMilRadar or other trackers' logs for those days; satellite imagery at sub-metre resolution of the aprons on 2–3 Sep (Sentinel-2 passes at 10:01 UTC, two hours before each arrival).
A one-week surge of Turkish A400M flights into western Libya, 2–9 September
Where / when Eight Turkish A400M aircraft-days in eight days (2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 7, 9 Sep): two at Al-Watiya, six toward Misrata (21-0118 within 3 km on 3 Sep and 1 km on 9 Sep; 18-0094 within 3 km on 7 Sep). The rest of the 90 days averaged about one a week (Plate C3).
Why it is a lead three aircraft on two consecutive days and back-to-back sorties to Misrata look like an airlift rather than routine liaison. We found no reported Turkish deployment, exercise or rotation in early September.
What would settle it what moved: troop rotation, air-defence or drone equipment, or something tied to the Zawiya fighting in August. Turkish parliamentary or MoD statements; Libyan MoD; Misrata-based reporters.
Where / when 27 Aug 00:12–01:30 UTC (02:12–03:30 local), 32.623–32.627N 12.465–12.471E, seen by three satellites over 78 minutes, up to 6.2 MW; farmland with walled compounds (Plate Z9).
Why it is a lead a night fire that lasts over an hour among farm compounds is unlikely to be crop burning. Sabratha has seen state drone strikes on smuggling sites (30 Jul and 15 Dec 2025) and a drone strike at Talil, west of Sabratha (1 Jan 2026). We found no report for this night.
What would settle it local reports of a strike, clash or fire south of Sabratha in the early hours of 27 Aug; a Sentinel-2 comparison of 24 Aug with 29 Aug for scorch marks.
Repeated night fires on the west Zawiya coast, 11 Aug – 11 Sep
Where / when 12 VIIRS pixels on 4 nights (11 Aug, 22 Aug, 7 Sep, 11 Sep), 32.788–32.793N 12.624–12.643E, about 6 km west of the refinery, up to 7.4 MW. Night only (00:06–01:54 UTC) (Plate Z10).
Why it is a lead the first night is the night after the third refinery strike. Nothing was detected here in the 14 days before. The pattern — repeated, night-only, a few MW — is not a gas flare (flares show every night). We have not identified the facility.
What would settle it what is at this spot (local knowledge or OpenStreetMap); whether the Zawiya power station or any coastal site was hit or burning on those nights.
Where / when 2, 3 and 10 Oct (00:18–01:30 UTC), 32.794–32.798N 12.770–12.774E, up to 3.3 MW, on the shoreline; the same spot also burned on 4 Aug at 00:42 UTC, during the 3–4 Aug clashes (Plate Z4).
Why it is a lead
What would settle itZawiya reporting for the nights of 1–3 and 9–10 Oct.
Midday fires 21 km north of the base, 30 July and 13 August
Where / when 30 Jul 12:42 UTC (9.2 MW) and 13 Aug 12:30 UTC (13.3 MW), 32.662N 11.953–11.956E, at a road junction with a walled compound (Plate Z8).
Why it is a lead the strongest heat in the base's hinterland, twice, two weeks apart, at the same spot. It may be waste or tyre burning; we found nothing reported.
Where / when 6 Oct 12:00–12:18 UTC, 32.916–32.919N 12.075–12.076E, three pixels on two satellites, up to 4.8 MW (Plate Z3).
Why it is a lead in town, daytime, one day only. Zuwara is a migrant-departure point and has seen fighting over the Ras Ajdir crossing. No report found.
Two night detections west of Yevpatoria, Crimea (carried from SITREPs 006 and 008)
Where / when 24 Oct 23:46 UTC (45.154N 33.254E, 2.5 MW) and 25 Oct 00:05 UTC (45.201N 33.270E, 0.8 MW)
Why it is a lead still no dated report. Yevpatoria was among the cities that lost power in the 23–24 Oct blackout (Crimean Wind via aggregators), but these detections are a night later.
What would settle it claims of strikes near Yevpatoria / Saky for the night of 24–25 Oct; a clear optical pass (none yet).
Khiam fire, southern Lebanon (carried from SITREP 008; partly explained)
Where / when 25 Oct 09:45–11:25 UTC; 33.338–33.344N 35.623–35.629E; up to 10.5 MW
Why it is a lead Profile News's 25 Oct daily report lists Israeli artillery fire on the 'Khiam plain' that day, without times. That fits the place; the time and cause of the sustained fire are still unconfirmed.
What would settle it a timed report of shelling near Khiam on 25 Oct; next clear Sentinel-2 pass for a burn scar.
Where / when USAF C-17s 00-0174 (28 Jul), 09-9209 (1 Aug) and 99-0168 (4 Sep), heading ~330° from north-east Iceland at 34,000 ft and last heard at 68.4–69.3°N 20.5°W (the first two at the identical point, which is probably the edge of receiver coverage). A Luftwaffe A400M (54+28, 4 Aug) was heard briefly at 68.9–69.3°N heading ~013° — towards Station Nord or Svalbard, not the same line
Why it is a lead from where they were lost, Pituffik bears ~320°, Alert ~342°, and East Greenland's Constable Pynt and Mestersvig 334–345°. Defense One (20 Oct) reports Mestersvig has mainly hosted special operations forces and is to become a US base. No such flights have been reported.
What would settle it USAF or Danish Joint Arctic Command confirmation of the destinations; the nearest Sentinel passes of Mestersvig and Constable Pynt (5–7 Sep, Plates D2–D3) show nothing at 10 m.
Where / when ZZ416 left Keflavík at 10:19 UTC on 20 Oct and departed Nuuk southbound at 14:58 (its arrival was not heard). It then went unheard for about 24 hours somewhere south of Nuuk, came back from the south to land at Nuuk at about 15:36 on 21 Oct, left at about 17:00 and landed at Keflavík about 20:05. Sister aircraft ZZ418 was at Keflavík 12–13 Oct
Why it is a lead the Shadow R1 is the RAF's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft (due for withdrawal under the 2026 Defence Investment Plan). We found no report of RAF ISR flights from or over Greenland.
What would settle it MoD or Danish confirmation of the tasking and where it spent 20–21 Oct; whether it is linked to Arctic Sentry. The Folketing's Greenland Committee was in Nuuk on 20–23 Oct (Altinget calendar) — no stated link, but worth a check.
First RCAF aircraft on the ground in Greenland in this year's archive
Where / when CC-177 177702: left Keflavík 13:41 UTC on 12 Sep, final approach at Nuuk 15:48, on the ground until about 16:35, then departed westbound
Why it is a lead it is the only RCAF aircraft logged on the ground at any Greenland airfield all year. It landed the day before NORAD's ARCTIC VANGUARD 26 (13–26 Sep, hosted from Goose Bay, operating over Labrador and Greenland), but DND's account lists CF-18s, a CC-130H and helicopters, not a CC-177.
What would settle it what 177702 carried to Nuuk (consulate, ARCTIC VANGUARD, or BOXTOP II support).
Where / when Royal Danish Air Force C-130J B-536, Challenger C-168 and Navy helicopter N-977 at or near Nuuk on seven straight days
Why it is a lead 11 Danish aircraft-days at Nuuk in the week to 4 Oct — the most of the year (late May: 10). Danish Defence says Arctic Endurance runs all year, but we found no report of this week's activity.
What would settle it Danish Joint Arctic Command or Greenlandic media for an exercise, visit or incident that week.
Where / when 25 Oct, 09:45–11:25 UTC (12:45–14:25 local); 33.338–33.344N, 35.623–35.629E; four VIIRS passes, 6–10.5 MW
Why it is a lead the same spot burned for at least 1 h 40 min on open slope above the valley, outside the built-up area. No dated report for that place and time; Israeli strikes and demolitions in the south are frequent, so this may be one that went unreported in English-language media.
What would settle it Lebanese NNA or local reports of shelling, a strike or a large brush fire near Khiam on the morning of 25 Oct; next clear Sentinel-2 pass for a burn scar.
Two night detections west of Yevpatoria, Crimea (carried over from SITREP 006)
Where / when 24 Oct 23:46 UTC (45.154N 33.254E, 2.5 MW) and 25 Oct 00:05 UTC (45.201N 33.270E, 0.8 MW), about 5 km apart
Why it is a lead night-time heat on the coast and in farmland the night after drones hit Crimea's power grid (23–24 Oct); still no dated report for that area.
What would settle it Ukrainian or Russian claims of strikes near Yevpatoria / Saky for the night of 24–25 Oct; next clear optical pass.
Where / when Outages announced for 12:00 local, 25 Oct; attack time and target not stated
Why it is a lead the governor announced rolling outages after a Ukrainian attack but did not say what was struck or when. Our night lights for 24 Oct were near normal, so the damage is either after that pass or did not cut city-wide lighting.
What would settle it the target and time of the attack; our night-lights read for the night of 25 Oct (data ~26 Oct) will show whether lighting dropped.
