Archived: the classic site (v1), frozen 29 Oct 2026. Kept for reference only: its data stopped updating and some functions may not work. Go to the current site →
Reconstructions of past events from satellite, flight, fire and night-lights data — an incident, a year of flights, a base's history. SITREPs cover what is happening now; hindcasts work out what happened. Numbered RWI-HC-NNN; reports renamed from the SITREP series keep their old ID as an alias.
How these are made. SITREPs are LLM-generated and automated: produced by an AI model from the pipeline's open-source data and published. They are leads, not findings. Analyses are different: written by a human and signed by their author.
RWI-HC-003-P2-DECODEDELTA1Hindcastrev. 2
Hindcast part 2 — DECODEDELTA1, Al-Watiya, the whole of December 2015
Window 30 Nov 2015 17:00 MST (00:00 UTC, 01 Dec) → 31 Dec 2015 16:59 MST (23:59 UTC)
December 2015 at Al-Watiya, the month of the 14 Dec US special forces landing: no satellite passed on the 14th, and nothing in the open record marks it. Radar spanning the landing (12 → 24 Dec) is as quiet as the control pair before it; the base was dark at night all month; no fire within 30 km. The reported 06:00 landing was two hours before sunrise (08:05 local). The Libyan Air Force's three photos (C-146A 13097) were all taken in daylight, at least 2.5 h after landing; the aircraft faced west to south-west (revision 2). Clear Sentinel-2 on 25 Nov and 25 Dec gives a clean before/after at 10 m. Supersedes HC-003's "cannot image" line.
Hindcast — The RCAF on the night of the Wainwright fire (17–18 Oct 2026)
Reporter leads · unexplained so far
A 442 Sqn CC-295 Kingfisher was airborne at Comox (1,034 km from Wainwright) when the fire hit and landed at 17:50 MDT; the jump came from Winnipeg at 19:49.
The nearest unit able to parachute medics was 1,000 km away: 417 Sqn at Cold Lake (177 km) has had non-parachuting med techs instead of SAR techs since 2018.
Air ambulances crossed the drop zone at jump altitudes minutes from both reported jump times; a helicopter is in the video of the jump. Was a NOTAM issued?
Window 17 Oct 2026 16:00 MDT (22:00 UTC) → 18 Oct 2026 06:00 MDT (12:00 UTC)
Almost nothing else in the RCAF was flying on the night of the Wainwright fire. Only the national SAR squadrons can parachute medics, and the nearest were Winnipeg and Comox, each about 1,000 km away; Cold Lake lost its SAR techs in 2018. A Comox Kingfisher was airborne when the fire hit. The drop zone sat under the air-ambulance traffic into Wainwright.
Al-Watiya is quiet: no heat, dark at night, no visible change in 2026. The only aircraft to come down there in 90 days of open ADS-B were two Turkish A400Ms on 2 and 3 Sep, unreported, inside a one-week Turkish airlift surge into western Libya. The southern runway was resurfaced in late 2020, after Turkey arrived. The fighting is in Zawiya: the 10–11 Aug refinery fire shows in VIIRS and imagery, and the city went dark on 16–17 Aug and again on 31 Aug, both in western-Libya grid collapses (revision 1). Starting point: the December 2015 US special forces landing at the base.
Hindcast — CFS Alert, Part 3 (1 Jul – 24 Oct 2026)
Reporter leads · unexplained so far
US C-17s heading ~330° from north-east Iceland (28 Jul, 1 Aug, 4 Sep), lost near 69°N — Pituffik, Alert or East Greenland (Mestersvig, a planned US base)? Unreported.
RAF Shadow R1 surveillance aircraft ZZ416 at Nuuk on 20 and 21 Oct, with ~24 h unheard south of Nuuk. Unreported.
RCAF CC-177 177702 on the ground at Nuuk, 12 Sep — the only RCAF aircraft on the ground in Greenland all year. Purpose unreported.
Danish military at Nuuk seven straight days, 27 Sep – 3 Oct — the busiest Danish week of the year. Unreported.
French, US and Dutch government jets at Nuuk (1 Jul – 4 Aug) with no matching public visit.
Window 30 Jun 2026 18:00 MDT (00:00 UTC, 01 Jul) → 24 Oct 2026 17:59 MDT (23:59 UTC)
Alert is unheard all year and fall BOXTOP is invisible in open data, but Greenland got busier: Keflavík peaked at 36 military aircraft-days in the week of 7 Sep, France's PEGASE 26 tankers crossed to Alaska on 8 Sep, an RCAF CC-177 landed at Nuuk on 12 Sep, and an RAF Shadow R1 surveillance aircraft visited Nuuk on 20–21 Oct. Five reporter leads.
Hindcast — CFS Alert, Part 2 (25 Mar – 30 Jun 2026)
Window 24 Mar 2026 18:00 MDT (00:00 UTC, 25 Mar) → 30 Jun 2026 17:59 MDT (23:59 UTC)
Spring BOXTOP 26-1 flew in April with an RAF C-17 alongside the RCAF for the first time; open ADS-B catches RAF C-17s staging through Keflavík, with ZZ176 northwest-bound towards Pituffik on 10 Apr. Alert itself is still unheard, and clear passes show no aircraft on the ground. US government jets at Nuuk match envoy Landry's 17–20 May visit; Danish activity at Nuuk peaks 13 May – 4 Jun; the RCAF's effort goes west to RED FLAG-Alaska, not to Greenland.
Hindcast — CFS Alert, Part 1 (1 Jan – 24 Mar 2026)
Window 31 Dec 2025 17:00 MST (00:00 UTC, 01 Jan) → 24 Mar 2026 17:59 MDT (23:59 UTC)
Open sources are blind at Alert itself; the 12–13 Jan RCAF CC-130J flight is not in the open ADS-B archive. Danish military airlift into Nuuk is visible from 12–13 Jan, days before the reported start of Arctic Endurance; no RCAF aircraft seen landing in Greenland; RCAF northern activity in March matches Op NANOOK-NUNALIVUT.
Window 13 Oct 2026 18:00 MDT (00:00 UTC, 14 Oct) → 25 Oct 2026 05:00 MDT (11:00 UTC)
Rev. 1: fire began in Permanent Danger Area 2 downrange of Range 11 (VIIRS pixels 2.1–4.4 km ENE, supporting Prime Rogue's origin model); low-intensity from midday, ~1,200 MW run at 15:30 after the 15:16 gust, reaching the Range 2 area ~15:19–15:26; ~10.7 km² burned, ~0.9 km² off-base; a separate unreported fire in the same danger area on 14 Oct.
