Hindcast — DECODEDELTA1, Al-Watiya air base and western Libya

Reporter leads unexplained so far

1. RWI-HC-003-DECODEDELTA1-L1A Turkish Air Force A400M landed at Al-Watiya on 2 September 2026; a second probably landed on 3 September

   Where / when2 Sep: A400M 15-0051 descended in a spiral over the base from 10,725 ft (11:57), reported on the ground at 12:03 and again at 14:48 on the west end, airborne 14:51 and gone north-east by 15:49 — about 2 h 48 min on the ground. 3 Sep: A400M 18-0093 spiralled down to 675 ft 5 km east of the runway at 12:09, was not heard for 2 h 18 min, then was climbing over the base at 14:27. Both came from and left towards the Ionian Sea (Plates T1–T2).

   WhyTurkish A400M flights to Watiya were reported in 2020–2022, but we found no report of any flight or event at the base in 2025–26, and no report of these two. They are the only aircraft in 90 days of open ADS-B to come down at Al-Watiya. They fall in the busiest week of Turkish airlift to western Libya in the window (lead L2). We cannot tell what was carried.

   Would settle itTurkish MoD or Libyan MoD comment on deliveries to Watiya on 2–3 Sep; ItaMilRadar or other trackers' logs for those days; satellite imagery at sub-metre resolution of the aprons on 2–3 Sep (Sentinel-2 passes at 10:01 UTC, two hours before each arrival).

2. RWI-HC-003-DECODEDELTA1-L2A one-week surge of Turkish A400M flights into western Libya, 2–9 September

   Where / whenEight Turkish A400M aircraft-days in eight days (2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 7, 9 Sep): two at Al-Watiya, six toward Misrata (21-0118 within 3 km on 3 Sep and 1 km on 9 Sep; 18-0094 within 3 km on 7 Sep). The rest of the 90 days averaged about one a week (Plate C3).

   Whythree aircraft on two consecutive days and back-to-back sorties to Misrata look like an airlift rather than routine liaison. We found no reported Turkish deployment, exercise or rotation in early September.

   Would settle itwhat moved: troop rotation, air-defence or drone equipment, or something tied to the Zawiya fighting in August. Turkish parliamentary or MoD statements; Libyan MoD; Misrata-based reporters.

3. RWI-HC-003-DECODEDELTA1-L3Night fires south of Sabratha, 27 August

   Where / when27 Aug 00:12–01:30 UTC (02:12–03:30 local), 32.623–32.627N 12.465–12.471E, seen by three satellites over 78 minutes, up to 6.2 MW; farmland with walled compounds (Plate Z9).

   Whya night fire that lasts over an hour among farm compounds is unlikely to be crop burning. Sabratha has seen state drone strikes on smuggling sites (30 Jul and 15 Dec 2025) and a drone strike at Talil, west of Sabratha (1 Jan 2026). We found no report for this night.

   Would settle itlocal reports of a strike, clash or fire south of Sabratha in the early hours of 27 Aug; a Sentinel-2 comparison of 24 Aug with 29 Aug for scorch marks.

4. RWI-HC-003-DECODEDELTA1-L4Repeated night fires on the west Zawiya coast, 11 Aug – 11 Sep

   Where / when12 VIIRS pixels on 4 nights (11 Aug, 22 Aug, 7 Sep, 11 Sep), 32.788–32.793N 12.624–12.643E, about 6 km west of the refinery, up to 7.4 MW. Night only (00:06–01:54 UTC) (Plate Z10).

   Whythe first night is the night after the third refinery strike. Nothing was detected here in the 14 days before. The pattern — repeated, night-only, a few MW — is not a gas flare (flares show every night). We have not identified the facility.

   Would settle itwhat is at this spot (local knowledge or OpenStreetMap); whether the Zawiya power station or any coastal site was hit or burning on those nights.

5. RWI-HC-003-DECODEDELTA1-L5Night fires in east Zawiya, early October

   Where / when2, 3 and 10 Oct (00:18–01:30 UTC), 32.794–32.798N 12.770–12.774E, up to 3.3 MW, on the shoreline; the same spot also burned on 4 Aug at 00:42 UTC, during the 3–4 Aug clashes (Plate Z4).

   Why

   Would settle itZawiya reporting for the nights of 1–3 and 9–10 Oct.

6. RWI-HC-003-DECODEDELTA1-L6Midday fires 21 km north of the base, 30 July and 13 August

   Where / when30 Jul 12:42 UTC (9.2 MW) and 13 Aug 12:30 UTC (13.3 MW), 32.662N 11.953–11.956E, at a road junction with a walled compound (Plate Z8).

   Whythe strongest heat in the base's hinterland, twice, two weeks apart, at the same spot. It may be waste or tyre burning; we found nothing reported.

   Would settle itwhat the compound is.

7. RWI-HC-003-DECODEDELTA1-L7Midday fire in Zuwara, 6 October

   Where / when6 Oct 12:00–12:18 UTC, 32.916–32.919N 12.075–12.076E, three pixels on two satellites, up to 4.8 MW (Plate Z3).

   Whyin town, daytime, one day only. Zuwara is a migrant-departure point and has seen fighting over the Ras Ajdir crossing. No report found.

   Would settle itZuwara reporting for 6 Oct.